August Predictions

A friend of mine recently suggested that I couldn't just wait until the day before the elections to give predictions that I swear by. Well I'm still going to wait to do that. But I'll enter in a first wave of predictions now for the hell of it, so if I'm right I'm even more awesome.

McCain Gets - The South (all, unless you count Maryland as southern), plains and mountains (except Colorado), Alaska, Arizona, Texas, Nevada, Missouri (sux), Indiana, Ohio for a total of 265 electoral votes.

Obama Gets - Northeast, lake Michigan states (minus Indiana), Hawaii, Iowa, West coast, New Mexico and Colorado, for a total of 273 electoral votes.

Wins by? - 1.5 million votes.

Reasoning: McCain has been gaining on Obama something serious for about a month now. Why, you ask? Misleading ads and lying to the American people (celebrity nonsense, offshore drilling), I would guess. Russia's invasion of Georgia also helps the man people for some reason trust more on defense (McCain). Still, the Republican brand has been so damaged of late its still hard to imagine a majority of Americans making the same mistake a thrice. But due to the power of the Republican attack machine, the scary world, and racism, its going to be too close for comfort. My reasoning on the three close ones (in my mind)...

Virgina - Getting more Dem. all the time - but still in the South and when it comes down to the line I see Obama losing by a percent or something.

Ohio - This was close in 2004 and will be close this time. My gut right now is feeling McCain here, but I sincerely hope I change that later.

Colorado - This one is trending McCain now too. But McCain has messed up some local water issue (yeah, I read blogs too much) and the Dem convention will be there. Its been going more Democratic of late and neighboring New Mexico looks fairly solid Dem. This one calls the election for Obama.

That's it for now...I'll update my predictions sometime in September, probably a couple weeks after the dust from the conventions settle.