Election Predictions

Obama Election Day Post

So…I got 2004 and 2006 right, but this one is actually going to be (yeah, I’m making excuses) harder. Why? There’s been a lot of movement in both the polling and the campaign (Obama’s summer fall, Palin, the destruction of the world economy) which makes prediction difficult. There’s also the questions of racism (Bradley effect) and increased turnout. But anyway, on with the predictions.

I’ll move from West to East.

Hawaii (4): Obama.
Alaska (3): McCain. Palin = instant win.
West Coast (77): Obama. The northwest might have been close in a close election.
Nevada (5): Obama. One of my riskier guesses, I would say. Went for Bush. But Obama’s leading wide enough in the polls and I feel like increased turnout will help.
Arizona (10): McCain. Home-state advantage.
Utah/Idaho/Wyoming (15): McCain.
Montana (3): McCain. I list Montana separately b/c it’ll be close. It went for Clinton once and has two democratic senators. But I’m going with the polls.
New Mexico (5): Obama. Usually close but hasn’t been this election.
Colorado (9): Obama. Usually Republican but has seen an upsurge in democratic activity of late. Polls bear this out.
Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas/South Dakota (55): McCain.
North Dakota (3): McCain. Obama’s leading in the polls out recently. What? There’s very little to go on here, so I’m calling outlier on this one and going with the historical record.
Louisiana/Arkansas/Alabama/Mississippi/Tennessee/Kentucky (49): McCain.
Missouri (11): Obama! Ah Missouri, my oft-conservative home state. Have you learned to love Obama like Claire? I think you have, just barely. And I’m counting on the cities to turn ‘em out like none other. Will be hair-breath close.
Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin (27): Obama. Midwest love.
Illinois (25): Obama. Home-state love.
Michigan (17): Obama. Was in play, but then the economy happened.
Indiana (11): McCain. One of the hardest states to call. Its been quite close all year, and Obama can really turn out in the Chicago suburbs. But I’ll go with a narrow McCain victory off his overall poll lead and historical advantage.
Ohio (20): Obama. National momentum moving his way, the ultimate bell-weather goes too. Not an impossible reach for McCain though.
Florida (27): Obama. Another close one. Will be down to the wire. But they like Biden and they like money.
Georgia (15): McCain. This is closer than you’d think. If Obama has super turnout then I could be wrong on this.
South Carolina (8): McCain.
North Carolina (15): Obama. Turnout! Polls! Can this be?
Virginia (13): Obama. Turnout! Polls! DC suburbs!
West Virginia (5): McCain. Blarmey Nigra!!!
Pennsylvania (21): Obama. McCain’s making a play for it. Here’s betting he fails.
Blue Northeast (78): Obama.
New Hampshire/Maine (8): Obama. Might be close in a close election.

Leaving us with! Obama 364, McCain 174, OBAMA PWNZZOIGKNLK!
Margin of Victory: 4.2%.
The Messiah will have arrived ere’ I eat dinner in Prague on the 5th.